Week Ahead: German GDP, US GDP, US Primaries and Corona
With the Corona virus spreading in Italy where football games, public events and Milan Fashion week were affected, traders and investors will be monitoring the spread of the virus. With a range of economic data coming from Germany, US and China, we will be monitoring whether the virus has affected economic growth and consumer/business confidence.
The week starts with a relatively quiet Monday on which we have holidays in Japan, Russia and Brazil. Something to potentially keep an eye on is that last few times Japan was on holiday there was increased volatility on the open. The most notable one was the flash crash from last January. During the European session we will receive the German IFO Business Climate reading for February. The consensus is for a reading of 95.3 which would be lower than the reading from last month of 95.9. In January the German IFO missed estimates.
Continuing with data from Germany, the expectation for the GDP Q4 are for 0.1% growth. The preliminary reading missed estimates a couple of weeks ago and traders will be monitoring whether final figure matches the preliminary result.
From the US we will get the CB Consumer Confidence for February. The January reading showed a pickup in confidence, after a series of misses in the previous months.
The forecast for February is for a reading of 132.
This day will be busier for US session traders with US New Home Sales for January being released. Also, for oil traders, we will get the latest EIA Crude Oil inventories. Due to lower demand in China because of the corona virus, the oversupplied market entered contango. Higher than expected inventories could potentially put more pressure on oil prices.
The focus will be on the US in terms of data with GDP (QoQ) for Q4 being released. With the upcoming election and Democrat primaries already underway, economic growth could be a key metric on which candidates and president Trump focus in their campaigns.
The week finishes with German Unemployment Change data for February and Canadian GDP for December.
After the close there will be Manufacturing PMI for February from China. The number could be affected by the Corona virus and we shall see whether it misses or beats analyst expectations.
Also, on 29 February are the South Carolina primaries for the Democrats. The race for the Democratic nomination is still in the early phase but nevertheless it could be one of the events to watch for traders who follow US politics.