• Dragostin Kozhuharov

Week Ahead

The week starts with SP500 above 2800 and Gold trading around 1700 mark. WTI posted a 21 year low. We have the standard focus - Covid 19 and how it affects the economy. Any news on potential loosening of measures and restarting of the economies could potentially move markets. Now let's have a look at each day individually:


Monday


Overnight we had some data from New Zealand - CPI for Q1 came in at 0.8vs0.4%. Also the Public Bank of China's Loan Prime Rate was lowered as expected from 4.05% to 3.85%. This finishes the data for Monday.


Tuesday


Tuesday kicks off with the Royal Bank of Australia's minutes. Then it's time for some UK job data. We have the Average Earnings Index + Bonus and the Claimant Count Change (Mar). As the UK coronavirus shutdown started in March, it's expected that the job numbers are going to start to reflect this. The expectation for the Claimant count change stands at 175k. From Germany comes the ZEW Economic Sentiment for April. Last month it came in well below expectations at -49.5 The forecast now is for -42.7. Canadian Core Retail Sales for February are expected at 0.3%. The figures for this month would probably not be as bad, as the data comes before the strict social distancing measures. Finally we have some real estate data from the US in the form of Existing Home Sales for March. The forecast is for 5.30M which is lower than the figure for the previous month. We will see whether the real estate market has suffered from the Covid 19 measures.


Wednesday


UK CPI and Canadian Core CPI for March are the highlights for this day. Oil traders will be monitoring the EIA Crude Oil Inventories data, as oil storage is starting to fill up quickly and Cushing isn't far away from being full.


Thursday


This could potentially be a busy day for GBP traders. We have UK Retail Sales figures for March + Preliminary Composite, Manufacturing and Services PMI data.


Other data from Europe includes Preliminary German Manufacturing PMI for April.


The US Initial Jobless Claims will show whether the job market situation in the US keeps getting worse. And to finish the day off we have the New Home Sales for March.


Friday


To close the week, we have another gauge for the German economy - Ifo Business Climate Index. Russia's Central Bank is setting it's Interest Rates and it could potentially be interesting as oil prices continue to tumble. Last, but not least are the US Core Durable Goods Orders for March. The expectation for this is -6% as overall manufacturing has taken a hit. When essentially the economy is shut down, no new orders come in and factories shut down.

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In a week which will be shorter due to Easter Friday, the focus again will be on Covid 19. The main territory affected by the disease has now switched from Europe to the United States. More than 1/4 o