Trading Journal - Last weeks of March
It's been a few weeks since the last update on the trading journal series, and this post will cover the last two weeks of March. After recording a drawdown of close to 10%, I managed to recover. Here is a recap of the trades.
Oil short trade - 24.03.2021
I was looking to enter another short trade on oil after my screw up the previous week. I missed the first opportunity on Monday, when the market opened higher going up to 62USD and then on Tuesday it dropped below 60USD.
Later that evening the news about the Suez canal came out. I didn’t enter a long, even though it was the obvious trade at the time. It paid off but I don’t regret missing it. On the next day when oil was making new highs all day, once it went above 60 I decided I will try a short. Such an extended move didn’t make sense. I believed that the problem in Suez would get solved fast. I entered around 60.50. The trade was never in the money. The market kept going against me and I liquidated soon after entry. Right at the highs of the day!
WTI 1hr chart. The green line is my entry. I have circled the candle in which I entered. The red line shows where I closed the trade. I have circled the candle when I closed with blue.
Lessons – don’t short into strength. Be more patient with the entries. If you missed an opportunity don’t chase it.
A pattern was developing – good ideas but bad execution.
I acknowledged this pattern in previous blog posts but it seemed that I didn’t improve during this week. Making the same mistakes is never a good sign.
Last week of March
After a session with the trader who I am mentoring I saw that all of my analysis worked and it was simple. So why was I not trading like I should and making money? I was firm that from next week I will do better because I knew better.
My analysis was showing that a short gold trade was possible if the precious metal broke out of it’s recent trading range. That trade materialised on the charts but I missed it. Why? Because I focused on oil. I noticed that it was in a range. I preferred to enter a short somewhere between 61 and 62. I was patient, I waited for the price to get there. If it didn’t, I wasn’t going to enter. And as a surprise, the price got close to there within a few hours. It was a great place, to enter. The kind of trade that makes you feel great. I held the trade for a few days. During this time it bounced off from 60 a few times. The last time it did that I closed it at 60 right before the release of crude oil inventories. I didn’t want to hold the trade during the release – there was also an OPEC meeting next day. And the week was short because of Easter.
WTI Daily Chart. The green line highlights my entry into the short position. The red line highlights my closing price. Circled in red is the daily candle when I entered. Circled in blue is the daily candle when I closed.
Earlier in the morning on the 31st March, I saw that Gold was trading around the lows for the year -1680. I liked the long trade – very small downside risk as SL could be place close to entry. I entered the long trade with a SL at 1670. It was another great trade. I closed it too soon but I was happy. This trading week I showed patience and good analysis and I executed in a perfect manner. It covered almost all of my drawdown from the previous week. And it gives a good foundation to build on for the rest of the year.
Gold Daily chart. The Red line shows the low for the year where I entered the long trade. It's a perfect example of a double bottom formation.