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Week 26-30 April
Wednesday 28 March Oil Long
I tried buying oil very soon after the weekly EIA crude oil inventories were released. The crude oil inventories showed a build in inventories of 90,000 barrels, much smaller than the expected 659,000 barrels. The price which I got filled at was 63.99 USD. I thought that the price would do something similar to what had happened the week before, when the price kept going up after bullish inventories. It did a retracement. As things weren’t developing as planned, I closed the trade a few hours later at 63.64 for a small loss. On the next day the price did go up and oil traded above 65. I made the right decision at the time considering that things didn’t develop as planned. This was the only trade for this week, as over the next few days I didn’t feel well and neglected markets and trading.
Week 3-7 May
The strategy on Gold for this week was to trade the range between 1800 and 1760 until it broke out of it. On the 3 May I noticed that gold had climbed up to test 1800. I was a bit late and entered a short trade at 1792.46. You can see on the chart below a green arrow on top of the candle where I entered. The profit target was 1775, as I tend to look to close trades at the midpoint of the range rather than try to ride it all the way down. I closed the trade on the next day, as gold reacted in a volatile manner to a data release. A few hours later it did retreat and reach my profit target, but I can’t be angry when I still made some money out of the trade. Later that week Gold did break out of the range, giving an opportunity for good long trade, but I missed it.
Gold daily chart. Green arrow shows the candle where I entered. Red arrow shows candle on which I closed.
Sell Dow
The strategy for the Dow was similar to Gold – there was a range and I was going to trade that range, until it wasn’t a range anymore. It ended up being a day trade due to the market reacting to data releases. I shorted the index when it was trading very close to it’s all time high. I got filled at 34,232.50 and it fell soon all the way down to 34,000. I closed at 34,071 as the market started reversing in a strong manner. It was a good decision as the Dow broke above it’s recent all time high and started making new records. I have highlighted the daily candle on which this trade occurred with a red ellipse on the chart below.
Dow daily chart.
Week 10-14 May
Sell AUDUSD
It had been a while since I did a FX trade. This one doesn’t merit much talk as I took it only because my algo did a short as well. I liked the way the chart looked so I joined in. I ended up closing the trade on the next day, as I was uncomfortable holding it for a long time. The good thing was that it was profitable.
Sell WTI 11.05.2021
This one was interesting. I saw that WTI was finding support at roughly 64USD during the week. Yet for some weird reason I decided to short it at 63.79 which was still within that support zone. In a few minutes I saw that the price had gone up by 50-60cents. I ended up closing it at 64.51 and thank god that I wasn’t using big size. This could have done some serious damage.
Buy Dow 11.05.2021
During a selloff in equities, I decided to try to buy the dip. I executed the trade at a previous all-time high – 34,250.90. Initially it went well, and the market went up. I went to bed that night thinking that if things went well, the market will be making new all-time highs within days. I was wrong and ended up being stopped out of the trade at 34,000. The market kept going down as inflation data scared investors in the following days, before finding some support before the weekend.
Sell WTI - 12.05.2021
WTI daily chart. The red circle shows my bad entry discussed earlier. The blue circle highlights the profitable short trade discussed below.
In accordance with the weekly strategy, once WTI went up above 66, I was looking to short it again. I managed to get a fill at 66.38, soon after the weekly inventories on 12.05.2021. This being a high conviction trade, I went in with the maximum size I found comfortable. My target was 64 – the place where I tried shorting earlier this week. On the next day I closed the trade at 65.22. I thought I shouldn’t be so greedy, considering that so far the week hadn’t gone very well. This trade turned the week into a profitable one, continuing my recent streak of good trading. Oil did go to 64, a little later the same day which I closed the trade. It shows that sticking to your view sometimes is the better decision, but again – you can’t be mad when you have made money.